CS2 Case Drop Rates

Since 2017, Valve has officially disclosed drop rates, in response to Chinese regulations on loot box transparency. These stats confirm that each item is determined using a Random Number Generation (RNG) algorithm, which operates completely independently of any past case openings.

What are the chances by rarity color?

The drop rates by item rarity in weapon cases are:
– Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92%
– Restricted (Purple): 15.98%
– Classified (Pink): 3.2%
– Covert (Red): 0.64%
– Ultra-rare (Knives/Gloves, Gold): 0.26% (≈ 1 in 385 cases)

Weapon Cases, Souvenir Drops, and Sticker Capsules

Drop Probabilities by Case Type

%

WEAPON CASES

Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92%
Restricted (Purple): 15.98%
Classified (Pink): 3.2%
Covert (Red): 0.64%
Ultra-rare (Knives/Gloves, Gold): 0.26% (≈ 1 in 385 cases)

STICKER CAPSULES

High Grade (Standard): 80%
Remarkable (Glitter): 16%
Exotic (Holo): 3.2%
Extraordinary (Gold): 0.64% (≈ 1 in 156 capsules)

SOUVENIR PACKAGES

Consumer Grade (Gray): 80%
Industrial Grade (Light Blue): 16%
Mil-Spec (Dark Blue): 3.2%
Restricted (Purple): 0.64%
Classified (Pink): 0.128%
Covert (Red): 0.0256% (≈ 1 in 3,906 souvenir packages)

0,26%

Odds of Getting a Knife or Gloves

Theoretical Examples Based on Number of Openings

10 Case Openings

~8 Mil-Spec
~2 Restricted
0 Classified
0 Covert
0 Knife/Gloves

With only 10 openings, you’re deep in RNG territory—don’t expect anything beyond blue or purple items.

250 Case Openings

~160 Mil-Spec
~32 Restricted
~6 Classified
~1–2 Covert
~0 Knife/Gloves (~1 per 385 on average)

With 250 openings, you may start to see red-tier skins and possibly one knife or pair of gloves, though there’s no guarantee.

1000 Case Openings

~800 Mil-Spec
~160 Restricted
~32 Classified
~5–6 Covert
~1 or 2 Knives/Gloves

With 1,000 cases opened, odds suggest you could get up to two knives or gloves—but remember, it’s all RNG.

These examples are simulations designed to give you an idea of drop probabilities—not guarantees. Even if you’ve opened 100 cases without hitting a rare drop, your odds for the next case are still the same as if it were your first.